Ontario Grain Market Commentary for November 13, 2009
By Seamus Hoban, Grain Farmes of Ontario
Grain Market Wrap
Grains start to show weakness
Gold reaches all time high
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Wednesday, December 2, 2009
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Commodity
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Period
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Price
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Weekly Movement
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Corn CBOT
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Dec.
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$ 3.9175
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↓
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2
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cents
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Soybeans CBOT
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Jan
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$ 10.3400
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↓
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20 1/2
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cents
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Wheat CBOT
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Dec.
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$ 5.5450
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↑
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4 1/4
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cents
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Wheat Minn.
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Dec.
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$ 5.6300
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↑
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8 3/4
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cents
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Wheat Kansas
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Dec.
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$ 5.5100
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↑
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3/4
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cents
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Canadian $
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Dec.
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$ 0.9514
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↓
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52.6
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points
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WHEAT
Wheat futures finished higher from the previous week, although the market is showing some weakness. The trade is becoming increasingly concerned about North American wheat being undercut in the global market. However in the broader market, commodities continue to surge with gold reaching an all time high above $1200/ounce.
The prospect of even larger wheat ending stocks in 2010, both domestically and globally, is expected to have a long-term negative price influence on the market. However in the short-term wheat may continue to be pulled higher by other commodities.
Statistics Canada’s latest production report estimates the country’s 2009 winter wheat production at 2.995 million metric tonnes, down 36.1% from 2008 levels.
Contract prices for December 2nd, 2009 at the close are as follows:
SWW at $187.03 per tonne ($5.09/bu.), SRW at $182.98 per tonne ($4.98/bu.), HRW at $196.58 per tonne ($5.35/bu.), and HRS at $188.59 per tonne ($5.13/bu.).
CORN
Corn finished marginally lower from the previous week, as the expected December 1 buying surge didn’t eventuate.
The U.S. Government has put on hold a decision to increase the allowable ethanol level in petroleum to 15%. However statements issued by the EPA strongly indicate that the increase will occur by mid-next year, although the higher ethanol blend will only be permitted for use in cars.
The Ontario corn harvest is estimated to be 80% complete, with a proportion of the remaining crop likely to be un-harvestable. Agricorp is estimating that 11% of insured acres have been reported as damaged, with 40% due to excess rainfall and/or moisture and 37% due to frost damage. Mould is quite prevalent throughout, however it is generally the less toxic varieties and therefore vomitoxin (don) levels have not been too high.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures dropped from the previous week, with less than expected buying activity by index funds.
The trade is anticipating lower world values into the fall of 2010 with a sharp rebound in South American production, where good rains have been received. However in the short term prices continue to be supported by strong export sales.
China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center is estimating both December and January soybean imports at a record 4.8 million tonnes, beating the previous best set in June.
The USDA is predicting that normal weather in the US could increase ending stocks in the 2010-11 crop cycle.
Statistics Canada’s latest production report increased Ontario’s soybean production by 142 900 tonnes to 2.6 million tonnes, up 5.8% from 2008.
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for November 13, 2009
By Seamus Hoban, Grain Farmes of Ontario
Grain Market Wrap
Mixed week for grains
US dollar hits new low
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Thursday, November 26, 2009
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Commodity
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Period
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Price
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Weekly Movement
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Corn CBOT
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Dec.
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3.9375
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↓
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4 1/4
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cents
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Soybeans CBOT
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Jan
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10.5450
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↑
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27 1/2
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cents
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Wheat CBOT
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Dec.
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5.5025
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↓
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16
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cents
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Wheat Minn.
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Dec.
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5.5425
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↓
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16
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cents
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Wheat Kansas
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Dec.
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5.5025
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↓
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15
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cents
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